My 2023 predictions – only they are not!

I have only tried to predict what might happen in the next 12 months in the world of AusLaw once. It was exactly 10 years ago – 2013 – and I got it so horribly wrong that many would argue I should never, ever, touch this subject again!

Of course, countering that I would argue that getting numbers #2 and #3 close to right, at that time, showed major insight – and surely you can gift me #6.

But there has to be a reason why I have not done a prediction post since and that reason is: Because I’m rubbish at it!

Instead, these days, I review the predictions of others and opine on whether – from my lofty hight of ‘know it all‘ – they can call it better than I can – which, they usually can!

And so that is why this year I would like to draw your attention to the 2023 Citibank-Hildebrant Consulting LLCClient Advisory Report‘.

In its 15th Year, this Report has done a whole lot better at guessing what the future holds for law firms than I have ever done; and Part II: ‘Looking ahead to 2023 and beyond‘, Section B: ‘Key trends to watch in 2023‘, sets out 16(ish) trends to watch-out for in the next 12 months.

So let’s take a look at what these suggested trends are, and I will then add some comments I might have on them.

THE REPORT’S FORECASTED 2023 TRENDS

  1. The evolution of the hybrid work model to a “more flexible” work model
  2. The growth and reshaping of lawyer leverage
  3. Equity partner growth at more firms
  4. Greater focus on both revenues and expense-related operation efficiencies, including:
    I. Rethinking space
    II. Redesigning the professional staff leverage model
    III. More outsourcing
    IV. Increased use of project management
    V. Thinking twice about business travel
    VI. More investment in technology
    VII. Improving realization
  • AFAs
  • Pre-negotiated discounts
  • Continued focus on improving the billing and collections process
    VIII. Greater focus on cross-selling opportunities
    IX. Financing growth

MY COMMENTS

And here I go with my 2c.

  1. The jury is out with this one – on the part of both the employee and the employer. I read a report the other day that stated employees wanted back in the office with rising cost of living expenses (read gas and electricity, but also inflation more generally). If that is true. get a couple of 30+ degree days in a row running the aircon all day, employees may well want to be working back in the office pronto (anyone else remember going to there cinema to cool-down?). On the other hand, employers are looking to reduce their footprint – after all, rent is up there with salaries winning the Biggest Overhead cost award. Some compromise is inevitable but it would not surprise me if we see a hybrid of a model introduced into Auslaw about a decade ago by Herbert Smith Freehills where you see most lawyers in the office 3 or 4 days a week, but back-office support staff (or Allied Professionals) working mostly from home.
  2. There’s a recession on the way. It has already arrived in many parts of the world. And with a recession comes something called ‘stickiness’ – where lawyers, especially at Special Counsel level, keeping work they could otherwise be passing down to more junior lawyers makes sure they (a) make bonus, and (b) keep their jobs [after all, Special Counsel is the biggest loss leading level in most law firms]!
  3. Unlikely – 5 generations in the workforce and a recession. I’d think you need to be very special to be looking at equity partner entry level at the moment. Now if we are talking salary partner, I would agree. And keep in mind that roles like ‘Managing Associate’ and ‘Special Counsel’ were born out of the 2008 GFC, so we may see more of these job descriptions appearing in job adverts in the near-ish future.
  4. Absolutely, but let’s look at this a little closer:
    I.’Rethinking space’ – yes, see my response in 1 above
    II. ‘Redesigning the professional staff leverage model’ – no, see my answer in 2 above
    III. ‘More outsourcing’ – I wish, see number 8 from my 2013 prediction list!
    IV. ‘Increased use of project management’ – we have been talking about this for over a decade and if we still haven’t got this right then we don’t deserve to keep putting this on our ‘wish list’
    V. ‘Thinking twice about business travel’ – absolute no brainer! Partners’ use of their airmails for upgrades will be a growing trend in the next 12 months!
    VI. ‘More investment in technology’ – yes and no. Yes if it is for cyber-security (especially client-driven cyber-security requirements), and yes if it is for time-based billing. But no if it is for anything else.
    VII. Improving realization
    – AFAs
    – Pre-negotiated discounts
    – Continued focus on improving the billing and collections process
    So much to say here, but all I will say is – rubbish. And what on earth is a ‘pre-negotiated discount’, is that a contractually agreed volume discount? If so, it is not an AFA!
    VIII. Greater focus on cross-selling opportunities – as I’m currently reading Heidi Gardner and Ivan A. Matviak’s ‘Smarter Collaboration: A New Approach to Breaking Down Barriers and Transforming Work‘ (didn’t realise they were married before I read this) I would hope so. But experience has shown me that partnership deeds drive cross-selling opportunities and not altruistic behaviour a lot better than HBR top-selling books!
    IX. Financing growth – ahh, maybe we wait and see how the other predictions go! And keep in mind that financial growth does not necessarily mean ‘profit growth’, which should be the main game for any law firm!

Anyhow, as usual comments are my own. And I hope everyone has a great 2023!

rws_01


Image credit today is  Moritz Knöringer

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